New Poll Shows Trouble for Delaware Democrats

11^th State Senate district race takes shape as republican challenger files, new poll shows trouble for democrats

Newark, DE, June 19, 2012:  The Delaware Republican Party is mounting a challenge to Democrat Senate President Pro-Tempore Tony DeLuca.  Christiana area resident and former U.S. Marine Evan Queitsch will file as the Republican challenger in the 11^th district on Friday June 22^nd at the Carvel Building in Wilmington.  Evan has been actively promoting free market, limited government solutions to Delaware’s challenges for the last 4 years and has decided to take action.  “Senator DeLuca embodies all that is wrong with politics and government today.  He holds two taxpayer funded positions, is at the center of a number of scandals and has authored and promoted numerous bills that have been bad for Delaware and especially the residents of the 11^th Senate District.  I’ll bring common sense and clarity to Dover and push for limited government, free market solutions that have been proven time and again to work.” Evan says.  

And the numbers show that the 11^th District agrees with Evan.  In December, an early poll showed Senator DeLuca in a dead heat with Mr. Queitsch with more than 80% of the respondents unsure of who they would choose.  A brand new poll taken this month of more than 1000 registered voters in the 11^th district shows the race beginning to shake out.  While 52% of the district is still undecided, Mr. Queitsch now holds an 8 point lead over Senator DeLuca.  The poll shows Evan carrying independent voters 3-1 over the sitting Senate leader and even claiming 14% of registered Democrat support.  In response to the poll, Mr. Queitsch said, “This poll shows that the residents of the 11^th District are tired of the status quo, more of the same politics that have been going on for decades in Dover.  They want someone who will work to restore fiscal responsibility, fix our education system, enable job creation in the private sector and demand open and transparent government.  These are values that spread across party lines and this poll shows that people are ready for a fresh start and a new approach after more than a decade of one party rule in Dover.  The policies of the elites, taxing and spending at will have led to more than 30,000 Delawareans out of work, failing schools and corrupt cronyism in our state government.  It’s time to clean up Dover, starting with Senator DeLuca.”

The poll also shows that the perceived partisan divide is shrinking among the electorate.  45% of those polled indicated that they would vote for the candidate with the best ideas over party affiliation.  It also showed that the race for President is far from over in the 11^th District as well.  While Barack Obama enjoys a 47%-31% lead over Mitt Romney, 22% of voters are still undecided.  In a district where Democrats enjoy a more than 2-1 registration advantage over Republicans, it would be expected that the incumbent Democrat President and Delaware’s own Joe Biden as VP would safely carry the district.  However, it appears that even Democrat voters are questioning reelecting President Obama as the recession lingers and many see White House policies as the reason for the prolonged economic downturn. 

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Poll conducted by Voice Broadcasting Corporation
Margin of Error +/- 3%
Sampling size: 2200

Party Affiliation

Response Metrics:
52% - Democrat
27% - Republican
21% - Independent

Registration Metrics:
55% - Democrat
21% - Republican
24% - Independent

Voting Habits (order randomized during sampling for accuracy)

When voting, which of the following are you more likely to vote for: Press 1 for The Democrat, Press 2 for The Republican, Press 3 for The candidate with the best ideas regardless of party.

Response Metrics:
39% - Democrat
16% - Republican
45% - Candidate with the best ideas regardless of party

Nearly half of registered voters say that they would vote based on candidate ideas not party line.

State Senate Race (order randomized during sampling for accuracy)

For the State senate in District 11, if Evan Queitsch is the Republican and Tony DeLuca is the Democrat, for whom are you likely to vote? Press 1 for Evan Queitsch, Press 2 for Tony DeLuca or Press 3 for Not Sure.

Response Metrics:
52% - Undecided
28% - Evan Queitsch
20% - Tony DeLuca

Breakdown:

14% of registered Democrats would vote for Republican Evan Queitsch over Democrat Tony DeLuca
49% of registered Democrats are still undecided
Senator DeLuca has only 39% support among his own party
Evan Queitsch is winning independents 3-1 over Tony DeLuca
11% of those who say that they would vote for Obama also say that they would vote for Evan Queitsch over Tony DeLuca
Senator DeLuca has less than 1% support among Republicans

Presidential Race (order randomized during sampling for accuracy)

In the Presidential race, for whom do you plan to vote? Press 1 for Mitt Romney, Press 2 for Barack Obama or Press 3 for Undecided.

Response Metrics:
22% - Undecided
47% - Barack Obama
31% - Mitt Romney

Breakdown:

Obama receives 11% support among Republicans
Obama carries Independents 40% - 30% over Romney with 30% undecided
19% of Democrats are still undecided
Obama carries 75% of Democrats while Romney carries 72% of Republicans

Where do I go to get my Reputation Back?

Today I recieved some news that is just, well vindication that the Truth shall set us free. After being publicly smeared as a campaign finance violator by the Delaware Republican Party simply for supporting Christine O'Donnell over Mike Castle. The FEC had previously reached a split decision on the matter but the investigative committee found no reason to believe that the O'Donnell campaign nor I had done anything wrong. Here is a link to the entire report and here is the excerpt that vindicates me.

Finally, the complainant alleges that the O'Donnell Committee's press secretary stated on his Facebook page that he speaks to TPAC "daily. The complainant also states that TPAC was planning a radiothon during which O'Donnell would make an appearance. OGC recommended finding reason to believe that violations of the Act occurred based on those facts. We disagreed.

We note again that "opening an investigation to determine whether we could discover a basis for those suspicions runs counter to the statutory constraints imposed on the Commission. That "reason to believe" requires more than mere speculation has been established in prior enforcement matters. For example, in MUR 4960 (Hillary Clinton), the Commission summarized the requirements as follows:
The Commission may find "reason to believe" only if a complaint sets forth sufficient specific facts, which, if proven true, would constitute a violation of the FECA. Complaints not based upon personal knowledge must identify a source of information that reasonably gives rise to a belief in the truth of the allegations presented...

Unwarranted legal conclusions firom asserted facts, see SOR in MUR 4869 (American Postal Workers Union), or mere speculation, see SOR of Chairman Wold and Commissioners Mason and Thomas in MUR 4850 (Fossella), will not be accepted as true. In addition,... a complaint may jbe dismissed if it consists of factual allegations that are refiited with sufficiently compelling evidence provided in the response to the complaint...

Similarly, in MUR S467 (Michael Moore), the Commission stated that "[purely speculative charges, especially when accompanied by a direct refutation, do not form an adequate basis to find a reason to believe that a violation of the FECA has occurred." Therefore, under the Act, before making a reason-to-believe determination, the Commission must assess both the law and the credibility of the facts alleged. To do so, the Commission must identify the sources of information and examine the facts and reliability of those sources to determine whether they 'reasonably [give] rise to a belief in the truth of the allegations presented." Only if this standard is met may the Commission investigate whether a violation occurred. These requirements are not met here.

Assuming that the radiothon was paid for by TPAC, mentioned the candidate, and was broadcast shortly before the primary election, the available information, including the Facebook posts at issue, provides insufficient basis for a reason-to-believe finding. First, the Facebook posting for the event does not indicate whether or not O'Donnell was set to appear. While a Facebook post by Evan Queitsch, apparently directed to a WDEL radio station employee, reads "@Jensen 1150 WDEL let me know if you want to know about the Tea Party Express as I speak w/them daily," OCiC states that the posts on their face do not satisfy the conduct prong. We agree. And even if TPAC and the O'DonnellConmiittee were in daily contact, such contacts would not be sufficient to meet the conduct threshold. More specific information is necessary.

Our unwillingness to find reason to believe a violation occurred based on the O'Donnell Committee's original response is bolstered by later confirmation that Mr. Queitsch was not a member of the O'Donnell campaign during the primary campaign. Therefore, the complainant's accusations in this matter, including one of which was based on tiie incorrect factual implication that Evan Queitsch was the O'Donnell Committee's press secretary, provide insufficient basis to find reason to believe.

My question is, where do I go to get my reputation back? When do I get to repair the damage that this false complaint has done to my career and potential political aspirations?   Mr. Tom Ross, do you even care that you've destroyed the career of an innocent person?  What about you Michael Toner?  Do you care that your false allegations have impacted my career? 

Also, to the media, you were quick to print my name in your articles alledging that there was wrong doing involved here.  Now that Christine, TEA Party Express and I have been cleared of wrong doing, will you print your retraction and apology on page A-1?